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电动车用铝量的增加对压铸行业带来的影响是产能过剩,还是发展机遇?

来自德国汽车轻量化市场分析专家对各汽车用压铸部件的专业分析

(PresseBox) (Menden, )
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作者 Jost Gaertner - AluMag Automotive

编辑 MatthiasBrandstätter - Spotlightmetal.com

车用电池技术的发展和对传统燃油汽车的规制正在大力推动电动车(EV)的发展,而电动汽车组件又为铝合金压铸行业提供了新的机会。

如果电池电动汽车(BEV)的市场份额增长速度远高于插电式混合动力电动汽车(PHEV)和全混合动力汽车(HEV)的总和,那么到下一个十年结束之前,铝压铸行业很可能就会因为产能过剩而遭受到严重冲击。电动汽车(EV)电池价格下跌的速度正在超过以往的预期水平,由此消费者购买电动车的成本最早在2018年就可与购买传统燃油汽车的成本达到可以相比的水平。随着电动车最长续航里程的不断增长和充电时间的不断缩短,电动汽车的市场份额将会实现持续增长。与此同时,实施规制甚至禁止传统燃油汽车辆销售的国家名单也越来越长。荷兰和印度最近宣布分别从2025年和2030年完成对传统燃油汽车的销售禁令,而中国和欧盟则将PHEV和BEV的份额系统列入了议程。

如果下一代的BEV的确会实现400公里以上的续航里程,电时间缩短为大约为15分钟, 而且电池价格下降导致购买成本与传统燃油汽车相比,那么BEV的渗透率将迅速增加。纵观来自24个不同的汽车预测机构和一级供应商的最新预测,预计到2025年全球BEV渗透率为6,86%(介于2% - 15%之间),增长至18,56%(介于5,75% 34%)。

市场的发展具体将会对那些铝合金压铸产品带来产能过剩的风险,又会对那些产品带来新的机遇?处于汽车用铝先端的欧洲的现状如何,几家大型德系车厂有哪些行动和目标?具体到各个部件的生产,会有哪些风险和机遇?

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Increasing Penetration of BEVs – Overcapacity of or Opportunity for Cast Aluminium?

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The publisher indicated in each case (see company info by clicking on image/title or company info in the right-hand column) is solely responsible for the stories above, the event or job offer shown and for the image and audio material displayed. As a rule, the publisher is also the author of the texts and the attached image, audio and information material. The use of information published here is generally free of charge for personal information and editorial processing. Please clarify any copyright issues with the stated publisher before further use. In case of publication, please send a specimen copy to service@pressebox.de.